Gold Bonds: A solution to the increasing CAD?

A free fall in the valuation of rupee made people to search for the reasons. There are many reasons, related to international market GDP, unemployment rate, Inventory data of commodities etc., out of which one of the prominent reason related to domestic market is widening gap of current account deficit (CAD), CAD is the difference between export and import value of Goods and services. In simple terms, export/import of a country is carried over in US dollar currency when import value of goods is more than export value, then the country needs to go to currency market to purchase dollars to settle the payments for imports. This imbalance in trade creates downward pressure on rupee and the buying capacity of rupee decreases against dollar.

Current account deficit is increasing and major import items contributing this imbalance are crude oil, gold and fertilizer. Crude & fertilizers is an essential commodity and reduction in import bill has an adverse effect to the economy. Now we are only left with strategy to alter the consumption of gold, and biggest question is will the govt succeed in controlling gold consumption?

In India buying gold is a tradition since centuries, in past decade gold has also became one of the favorite avenues for investment. Buying coins & bars outpaced the quantity of jewelry consumption. Most of this gold coin & bar investment made from undeclared money and which is the cause of concern now.

It is estimated officially that total stock of gold in india is around 25000 to 30000 MT. Value of this gold at present rate is somewhere around $ 1.25 trillion. Over the past few months we have seen govt introducing measures to restrict gold import. But, the restriction is not yielding any quick result as there is huge demand for gold in local market, illegal transportation is increasing. In such scenario, govt should introduce gold bonds and suck away the extra gold liquidity available in the market.

Leading fund manager Sadip Sabharwal  & commerce minister anand sharma are showing interest to introduce gold bonds. As the name suggest gold bond will be issued against gold deposited by the public. Actually means govt will buy away gold from public and issue a zero coupon bond with a yield of 4% for a period of 10 year. This will enable the public to convert their black money into white and allowing them to earn a tax free interest. On the other hand govt should transfer the gold to RBI and convert it to foreign exchange or RBI can resell the gold to open market and reduce dependency on import of gold. Out of the 25000 MT, if we can procure 500 MT out of this scheme it will have greater impact on the current account deficit and ensures better control on currency valuation.

NSEL Crisis - State of self regulation

Everyone thinks Indian financial markets are recovering from its mistrust, noncompliance & irregularities. But, the crisis of NSEL gloomed over us again reminding that nothing has changed. While swapping news channels you must have seen the outburst on the fall of share price of FT & MCX. Wondering what is the issue?

Financial Technologies is a technology company founded by Mr.Jignesh Shah around 18 years back. Along with software development, he recently entered into exchange business. MCX & NSEL were the two exchanges dealing in futures market & spot market of commodities respectively. Business was routine till the suspension of forward contracts in NSEL. After which we saw panic selling in FT & MCX, which are the two group companies listed on exchange.

NSEL does forward trading in commodities in which investors buy positions and further sell them to another investor without physically exchanging the commodity. Problem started with brokers “misselling” the forward contracts by mocking 100% risk free return. Current liquidity crisis is due to the imbalance between buy & sell positions. NSEL was allowed to offer only T+1 settlement contracts, but they have also created T+25 settlement contacts. It means buyer is a lender who pays money in two days and expects to receive the cash after 25 days with a risk free return on capital of say 15%, but the sell side transaction which is settled on T+25 is not being honored by the buyer of the other leg of the  contact. Even if one wants to settle this imbalance by selling physical goods, there is no talk about providing delivery of physical stock from exchange. Though company claims physical stock is available at their warehouse, market does not believe their argument.With all these uncertainties, there is a loss of trading interest. This has led to further trade in-equilibrium. Under these circumstances, FT claims it will defer all payments by 15 days and suspended all forward contracts trading except eGold, eSilver & ePlatinum. Company says, it will overcome issues related to settlement as they have assets worth of Rs.6500 cr against the payment due of Rs.5500 cr. But, the stock market is not buying this argument.

If NSEL has done business on virtual stock in their warehouses, it raises serious concern on the trust in financial market. Requires thorough investigation of the matter and guilty should be sent to jail, even if they are rich & powerful. If no action initiated, how can we instill trust in financial market?

Criminal = Terrorist ???

After 17 months Ajmal Kasab trial came to an end in judicial system. Public Prosecutor Mr.Ujwal Nikam was happy that the trial was carried out in civil court and he said, “Bharat has a judicial system of highest standard in the world”. Initially I was carried away by his statement, but what is so special in running a trial of a terrorist in civil court? It shows our system is not equipped to differentiate between a criminal and a terrorist who rage war against the nation.

Now we have another case where hanging of a parliament attack convict Afzal Guru is opposed by J&K CM Mr.Omar Abdulla. He said,"His name figures at number 30. and focus your attention those 29 that come before him." And he wants law to take its own course in the case of Afzal Guru.

Omar Abdulla has done no mistake in making such statement. He has some soft corner for Afzal Guru and he is using the loop hole of the system to protect his interest. Who knows, Tomorrow somebody files a PIL to stop the hanging of Kasab on the grounds of FIFO concept, and then we need to wait till number 31.

To clear such arguments, we need a special act to handle terrorists & terrorist activities.

Lets not be so happy in running a trial in civil court.L

God Bless INDIA...

I remember someone saying, “A leader is the one who emerges out of the crowd and achieves set objectives”. There are hundreds of theories available about leadership traits, but the one which has strike my mind is the above line.

I feel we don’t need reservation to find leader amongst us. As the word says reservation means book something for future use, may be a service or a space, but not a leader. I do understand we are in a democratic country where we have a right to choose our leader but the idea of reserving a leader can not be digested.

Reservations are the means to provide benefits to the certain segment of society, which is economically backward. And the same can not be used to empower the backward class. You really have a concern about women or any backward class; provide them better education, better facilities and spread the awareness about human rights(if you think the crimes against women are a concern). Address the real problem at the base level, rather than a short cut solution to the problem.

We have seen the problem with reservation in local panchayat bodies, and the same thing will replicate in the parliament level. As the womens quota bill is a sensitive issue, no one dares to oppose it publicly. Let’s not be so cynical about vote bank politics, express it publicly.

I am not against women or any back ward class, i m just against the concept of reservation of a leader.

Let’s unite, raise voice...

Rice Supply Situation

Rice is a staple food of half of the world’s population. As we produce close to 163 mt(Million Tonnes) of rice per year, we play a vital role in the international rice market . Hence any happenings in the Indian agricultural sector will have an impact on the global market.

On the backdrop of poor monsoon across india and the recent flood in the southern india will surely have a cut on the khariff production figures. After a record of 99mt output in last years khariff, we are now estimating to produce 81mt this year. At the moment shortfall of substantial 18mt is a cause of concern. We might face a worst rice supply situation in the days to come

What government will do:

• Regulate the rice market: Controlling inventory build up under ESMA will ease out supply for some time, but it is going to kill traders & millers in the market.
• Import of rice: As of now India has not participated actively in international market to procure rice. A sudden move by FCI will shore up rice prices globally as the volumes will increase rapidly.

What government should do:

• Rice @ Rs.2/kg: Rice sold at a substantial subsidised price will have lesser utility and the wastage is more. Centre should request state government to abolish such schemes for the time being.
• Substitute food: Think over promoting substitute food products like wheat, maize or other pulses.
• Increase domestic supply: improve the water availability conditions on ground to cultivate rice so that Rabi will have higher output units.
• Crop Insurance: Promote farmers to cultivate for Rabi season by assuring them with crop insurance. As most of them feel that, there will be scarcity of water in the summer season. Hence most of them have not even started seedling plots for nursery.

Every time a crisis occurs, we can not always look back to our age old strategy of regulating the traders & millers inventory in the market. We have to shift to a level, where we can address the base of the problem.

Rabi season is nearing, but water availability during this term is difficult to predict as the season gets over in summer. Hence government should design a strategy which will improve transplantion of paddy.

SAY NO TO SUBSIDY

I think word “subsidy” is always associated with problems rather than solutions. Intent of the government to relieve common man is misused in many ways. Centre spends enormous amount of resources and energy in controlling misuse, but the question is whether govt is successful enough in regularising its policies???

Export of Pottash

International market price of potash is nearly $640 per tonne (nearly Rs.31000) and the subsidised potash sold at Rs.4455 per tonne in Indian market. The differential between these two prices will invite smugglers to exploit the margin of profit.

These days,I had been meeting many guys, who would want to purchase potash upto Rs.9000- 10000 per tonne when the MRP is fixed at Rs.4455 per tonne. And retailers in smaller places will not think for a single minute before selling their goods, they say, by selling it to farmers I hardly get Rs.300 per tonne if some one wants to give me extra 4000- 5000 bucks why not sell it to him?

Initially I did not have an idea, what they would be doing with such an expensive purchase of fertiliser. After a small effort i came to know that, these middlemen sell this fertilizer to smugglers and the same will be exported to nearby countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam. In the later stage same exported fertiliser will be imported back to india at the prevailing international market prices.

The whole consignment will be shipped out by declaring falsely the goods as industrial salt. In a later stage same material will be imported back as Muriate Of Potash popularly known as MOP.

We have many rules & regulations, but none of the rules help us in protecting tax payer’s money. In this globalised world market should rule the market and not the government.

SAY NO TO SUBSIDY...

Sugar Cane: Short Term is OK But What About Long term?

As the sugar production dropped from 250 MT to 150 MT, we are able to witness a sharp rise in the sugar price. Data says at present we are not running out sugar inventory, but there will be a case where demand surpasses supply in the months to come. Due to heavy storing and speculation, price of sugar is sky rocketing.

To control the price, centre has come up with a stock limitation notification. According to this notification any individual or company using sugar as a raw material more than 10 quintals or 1000 kg has to provide CA certificate for their usage pattern. This notification will cover small entities like mithai shops, bakeries and restaurants along with companies like Britannia industries, Parle and Haldiram’s.

This eventually leads large industry to shell out their extra inventory to the open market and there by have a control on the rising price of sugar.

We are happy that centre has come up with a quick remedy to the rising problem of sugar. But, policy maker should realise stock limitation notification is a solution to the current short term problem and still the long term problem of sugar is not yet resolved.

As we all are aware that sugar cane is not just a raw material to produce sugar but also to produce ethanol, bio fuel and thermal power. Molasses contributes major revenue for the state’s excise exchequer and also used in blending petrol to make it greener so that it emits less green house gas. At present we are using 5% ethanol blended petrol across the country and the target is to increase the blend to 10 percent.

Keeping all these points we can not directly look out for a window to import sugar. We have to improve our production figures at ground level. Govt should adopt a policy where they can encourage farmers to grow more sugar cane.